2026 Week 11 · Conference game
North Dakota State at Hawai'i
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 4:59 AM UTC
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
North Dakota State
Mountain West
- Record
- 4-0
- Rating
- 10.6
- National rank
- 35
- Proj. wins
- 10.2
- Playoff prob.
- 58%
Hawai'i
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -7.1
- National rank
- 98
- Proj. wins
- 5.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
North Dakota State
84%
Hawai'i
16%
Hawai'i 90% CI: 11% – 21% Δ rating 17.7
North Dakota State is the model's favorite at 84%. Hawai'i has a 16% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.3 rating points baked in for Hawai'i — venue-specific learned value (n=26 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Dakota State offense
35 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Hawai'i offense
29 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 4:59 AM UTC
- Venue
- Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No