California: 2026 Week 11 recap

California sits at 3–6 with a rating of −8.2, unchanged from last week after a 31–10 loss at NC State in Week 9. The Bears' offense remains a significant constraint: a red-zone TD rate of 14% and third-down conversion rate of 38% signal recurring execution problems in high-leverage situations. GIE projects 4.1 expected wins for the season and gives them zero probability of reaching the playoff or winning the ACC. The path forward doesn't ease—Virginia awaits this Saturday—but incremental improvement on third down and in the red zone would at least offer a foundation for the remaining games.