California: 2026 Week 12 recap

California sits at 3–6 after a 31–10 road loss to NC State in Week 9, and the damage has compounded: GIE's rating dropped 3.2 points to −11.4, placing them 113th nationally. The Bears are converting just 37.7% on third down and struggling to capitalize in the red zone at a 14.3% touchdown rate—efficiency problems that have stacked up across nine games. Expected wins hover near 4.0, and the model assigns zero probability to either a conference title or playoff appearance. Cal visits Virginia on Saturday looking to stabilize a season that has slipped well outside postseason contention. The gap between where they need to be and where GIE sees them now is substantial.