Indiana: 2026 Week 12 recap

Indiana sits at No. 5 with an 8–1 record and a rating of 23.5 after edging Minnesota 23–16 in Week 9. The rating ticked down slightly from 24.2, a modest dip that reflects the narrow margin despite a win at home. GIE projects 10.3 expected wins for the season and gives the Hoosiers an 86% playoff probability—they're in strong position for the postseason. The red-zone efficiency remains a concern: a 17.5% touchdown rate in scoring opportunities is leaving points on the field, and the fourth-down aggression rate of 41% suggests restraint that may or may not be the right call depending on game script. Next up is USC at home in Week 11, where Indiana can strengthen its case against a Pac-12 contender.