James Madison: 2026 Week 11 recap

James Madison sits at 7–2 with a rating of 10.9 and ranked 29th by GIE, but the Dukes remain stuck after a 24–21 home loss to Troy in Week 9. That defeat stalled any upward momentum; the model hasn't budged the rating this week. The outlook hinges on execution in high-leverage moments—a redzone TD rate of just 15% suggests James Madison is leaving points on the board when opportunities matter most. GIE projects a 73% chance of winning the Sun Belt, a strong signal for the regular season, though the 0.01% playoff probability indicates the committee will need more convincing before December. Up next: a road trip to Southern Miss in Week 10, where the Dukes must prove they can tighten up in the red zone and capitalize on late-game chances.