Troy

Trojans · Sun Belt

Head coach Gerad Parker Year 2 with Troy

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs SP+ expected · n=47

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

6.3

Expected wins

6-6

Proj record

3 to 9

Win range (90%)

#88 (66–110)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Alabama State

Home · Sep 12
at Utah State

Away · Sep 26
vs Southern Miss

Home · Oct 7
at Louisiana

Away · Oct 17
vs Louisiana Tech

Home · Nov 7

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

50 PCI

Quarterback 40% (2/5 players)
Offensive line 56% (10/18 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 53% (16/30 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 59% (19/32 players)
Secondary 54% (14/26 players)
Special teams 40% (4/10 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Tucker Kilcrease)

GIE projects a 7.7 rating drop and a 30.7pp shift in playoff probability if Troy loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=4 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 36.5% 47th — average
Red-zone TD rate 16.3% 67th — average
4th-down aggression 42.2% 75th — strong
Late & close 4.6 yds/play 36th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Troy will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.