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2026 Week 3

Troy at Missouri

Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT

Memorial Stadium

Troy
Sun Belt
Record
0-0
Rating
-4.8
National rank
87
Proj. wins
1.0
Playoff prob.
0%
Missouri
SEC
Record
0-0
Rating
14.4
National rank
21
Proj. wins
7.1
Playoff prob.
7%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Troy
6%
Missouri
94%
Missouri 90% CI: 92% – 96% Δ rating 19.2

Missouri is the model's favorite at 94%. Troy has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.0 rating points baked in for Missouri — venue-specific learned value (n=60 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Troy offense
33 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Missouri offense
39 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Venue
Memorial Stadium
Conference game
No
Neutral site
No

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