2026 Week 3
Troy at Missouri
Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Memorial Stadium
Troy
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -4.8
- National rank
- 87
- Proj. wins
- 1.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Missouri
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 14.4
- National rank
- 21
- Proj. wins
- 7.1
- Playoff prob.
- 7%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Troy
6%
Missouri
94%
Missouri 90% CI: 92% – 96% Δ rating 19.2
Missouri is the model's favorite at 94%. Troy has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.0 rating points baked in for Missouri — venue-specific learned value (n=60 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Troy offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Missouri offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No