2026 Week 4
Troy at Utah State
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Maverik Stadium
Troy
Sun Belt
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -6.2
- National rank
- 93
- Proj. wins
- 7.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Utah State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-3
- Rating
- -9.3
- National rank
- 106
- Proj. wins
- 2.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Troy
49%
Utah State
51%
Utah State 90% CI: 42% – 60% Δ rating 3.1
Utah State is the model's favorite at 51%. Troy has a 49% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.4 rating points baked in for Utah State — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Troy offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Utah State offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
61°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
5 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Maverik Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No