2026 Week 1
Sam Houston at Troy
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Sam Houston
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -27.8
- National rank
- 135
- Proj. wins
- 0.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Troy
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -4.8
- National rank
- 87
- Proj. wins
- 1.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Sam Houston
6%
Troy
94%
Troy 90% CI: 91% – 96% Δ rating 23.0
Troy is the model's favorite at 94%. Sam Houston has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +-1.3 rating points baked in for Troy — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Sam Houston offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Troy offense
45 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No