2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Southern Miss at Troy
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Southern Miss
Sun Belt
- Record
- 1-3
- Rating
- -19.1
- National rank
- 127
- Proj. wins
- 4.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Troy
Sun Belt
- Record
- 2-2
- Rating
- -6.2
- National rank
- 93
- Proj. wins
- 6.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Southern Miss
19%
Troy
81%
Troy 90% CI: 75% – 86% Δ rating 12.9
Troy is the model's favorite at 81%. Southern Miss has a 19% path. Home-field adjustment of +-1.3 rating points baked in for Troy — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Southern Miss offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Troy offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
64°F
Precipitation
17%
Wind
4 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No