Louisiana: 2026 Week 11 recap

Louisiana sits at 68th overall with a 5–3 record, but GIE sees little daylight ahead: the model projects 7.9 expected wins for the season and assigns essentially no playoff probability. Last week's 35–31 road loss to Southern Miss crystallized the team's core problem—a red-zone TD rate of just 12% means scoring opportunities evaporate in the final stretch. Third-down conversion at 37% and cautious fourth-down aggression (34%) compound the issue; late-game leverage performance at 5.22 suggests the Ragin' Cajuns rarely find themselves in control when it matters. This week's home matchup against South Alabama offers a chance to reverse course, but the rating hasn't budged, and the path to conference contention—at 2% conference win probability—remains theoretical.