South Alabama

Jaguars · Sun Belt

Head coach Major Applewhite Year 2 with South Alabama

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs SP+ expected · n=47

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

4.5

Expected wins

5-7

Proj record

1 to 8

Win range (90%)

#114 (92–131)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs SE Louisiana

Home · Sep 5
vs Ohio

Home · Sep 19
vs UL Monroe

Home · Oct 3

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

50 PCI

Quarterback 40% (2/5 players)
Offensive line 60% (12/20 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 47% (16/34 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 55% (17/31 players)
Secondary 50% (12/24 players)
Special teams 75% (6/8 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 41.3% 76th — strong
Red-zone TD rate 16.3% 67th — average
4th-down aggression 52.4% 95th — elite
Late & close 5.2 yds/play 55th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about South Alabama will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.