2026 Week 4
South Alabama at Kentucky
Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Kroger Field
South Alabama
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -12.7
- National rank
- 114
- Proj. wins
- 1.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Kentucky
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 1.8
- National rank
- 66
- Proj. wins
- 4.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
South Alabama
10%
Kentucky
90%
Kentucky 90% CI: 86% – 93% Δ rating 14.5
Kentucky is the model's favorite at 90%. South Alabama has a 10% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.0 rating points baked in for Kentucky — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
South Alabama offense
35 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Kentucky offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Kroger Field
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No