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Kentucky

Wildcats · SEC

Head coach Mark Stoops

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
4.5
Expected wins
4-7
Proj record
2 to 8
Win range (90%)
#72 (45–94)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Vanderbilt
    Home · Oct 24
  • at South Carolina
    Away · Oct 3
  • vs Alabama
    Home · Sep 12
  • vs Louisville
    Home · Nov 28
  • vs Florida
    Home · Nov 14

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

48 PCI
  • Quarterback 50% (2/4 players)
  • Offensive line 37% (7/19 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 48% (14/29 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 47% (17/36 players)
  • Secondary 61% (11/18 players)
  • Special teams 57% (4/7 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Cutter Boley)

GIE projects a 2.8 rating drop and a 11.0pp shift in playoff probability if Kentucky loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 42.5% 83th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 22.6% 95th — elite
  • 4th-down aggression 28.1% 16th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 6.0 yds/play 74th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

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    Kentucky sits at 5–7 after a shutout loss to Louisville in Week 14, a 41–0 defeat that underscores the Wildcats' struggles down the stretch. The team's current GIE rating of 1.8 places them 66th nationally—a position that reflects…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.