Conference game

Florida at Kentucky

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 6:15 PM EST

GIE win probability

Florida 30% Underdog

Kentucky 70% Favorite

Kentucky 90% CI: 62–78%
Δ rating: Kentucky +2.4

Kentucky is the model's favorite at 70%. Florida has a 30% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.6 rating points baked in for Kentucky — venue-specific night-game value (n=60 games).

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Team comparison

Florida and Kentucky compared
Measure	Florida SEC	Kentucky SEC
Record	5-4	7-2
Rating	5.9	8.3
National rank	47	41
Proj. wins	6.3	8.7
Playoff prob.	0%	0%

Game info

Venue: Kroger Field
Conference game: Yes
Neutral site: No

Weather at kickoff

Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 31°F
Precipitation: 0%
Wind: 7mph

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Florida offense Higher fit 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup

Kentucky offense 38 / 100 Style-neutral matchup