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2026 Week 12 · Conference game

South Alabama at Southern Miss

Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC

M. M. Roberts Stadium

South Alabama
Sun Belt
Record
0-0
Rating
-12.7
National rank
114
Proj. wins
1.1
Playoff prob.
0%
Southern Miss
Sun Belt
Record
0-0
Rating
-7.1
National rank
94
Proj. wins
1.2
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

South Alabama
34%
Southern Miss
66%
Southern Miss 90% CI: 58% – 74% Δ rating 5.6

Southern Miss is the model's favorite at 66%. South Alabama has a 34% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.1 rating points baked in for Southern Miss — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

South Alabama offense
35 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

Southern Miss offense
37 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Venue
M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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