New Mexico State: 2026 Week 12 recap

New Mexico State sits at 126th overall with a 3-6 record and a rating of −16.1, having slipped 2.7 points after a 30-14 loss to Liberty in Week 10. The Aggies' offensive inefficiency tells the story: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 13% means scoring opportunities are evaporating in the moments that matter most. Third-down conversion sits at 42%, which compounds the problem—New Mexico State can't sustain drives, can't finish them, and can't build momentum. The model projects 4.1 wins for the season, with playoff probability at zero. Up next is a road trip to Missouri State in Week 11, a matchup against a fellow mid-tier FBS program where execution will define whether the Aggies can salvage meaningful wins down the stretch.