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Missouri State

Bears · Conference USA

Head coach Ryan Beard Year 1 with Missouri State

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
5.0
Expected wins
5-6
Proj record
2 to 8
Win range (90%)
#107 (87–126)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
3%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Marshall
    Home · Sep 19
  • vs Kennesaw State
    Home · Oct 14
  • at Florida International
    Away · Nov 7

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

51 PCI
  • Quarterback 50% (1/2 players)
  • Offensive line
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 64% (9/14 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 57% (8/14 players)
  • Secondary 22% (2/9 players)
  • Special teams 50% (1/2 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Jacob Clark)

GIE projects a 1.5 rating drop and a 6.0pp shift in playoff probability if Missouri State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 37.4% 54th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 19.3% 85th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 31.8% 28th — below avg
  • Late & close 7.4 yds/play 92th — elite

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.