Bears · Conference USA
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
16 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 1.5 rating drop and a 6.0pp shift in playoff probability if Missouri State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Missouri State sits at 0–1 after being shutout 50–0 by Texas A&M in Week 1, holding a rating of −19.1 and ranking 126th nationally. That result hasn't budged the model's assessment, which pegged the Bears as a long shot from the jump. The…
Missouri State sits at 7–6 after dropping a 42–30 home decision to Louisiana Tech in Week 14. The Bears rank 108th per GIE with a rating of –10.7, a position that reflects inconsistency across a season spent competing in Conference USA's…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
