2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Missouri State at Western Kentucky
Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Missouri State
Conference USA
- Record
- 1-3
- Rating
- -17.4
- National rank
- 124
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
- Record
- 1-3
- Rating
- -16.5
- National rank
- 122
- Proj. wins
- 4.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Missouri State
47%
Western Kentucky
53%
Western Kentucky 90% CI: 43% – 62% Δ rating 0.9
Western Kentucky is the model's favorite at 53%. Missouri State has a 47% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.0 rating points baked in for Western Kentucky — venue-specific night-game value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Missouri State offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Western Kentucky offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
48°F
Precipitation
1%
Wind
13 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No