2026 Week 4
Missouri State at SMU
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Missouri State
Conference USA
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -17.4
- National rank
- 124
- Proj. wins
- 4.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
SMU
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 12.0
- National rank
- 29
- Proj. wins
- 7.5
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Missouri State
1%
SMU
99%
SMU 90% CI: 98% – 99% Δ rating 29.4
SMU is the model's favorite at 99%. Missouri State has a 1% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.9 rating points baked in for SMU — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Missouri State offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
SMU offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Partly cloudy
Temperature
81°F
Precipitation
1%
Wind
6 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Gerald J. Ford Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No