2026 Week 3
Marshall at Missouri State
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Plaster Sports Complex
Marshall
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -4.5
- National rank
- 86
- Proj. wins
- 0.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Missouri State
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -10.7
- National rank
- 108
- Proj. wins
- 0.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Marshall
59%
Missouri State
41%
Missouri State 90% CI: 33% – 51% Δ rating 6.2
Marshall is the model's favorite at 59%. Missouri State has a 41% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.4 rating points baked in for Missouri State — venue-specific learned value (n=5 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Marshall offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Missouri State offense
45 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Plaster Sports Complex
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No