Missouri State: 2026 Week 3 recap

Missouri State sits at 0–1 after being shutout 50–0 by Texas A&M in Week 1, holding a rating of −19.1 and ranking 126th nationally. That result hasn't budged the model's assessment, which pegged the Bears as a long shot from the jump. The offensive numbers tell the story: a 37% third-down conversion rate and a 19% red-zone touchdown rate reflect an inability to sustain drives or capitalize in scoring position. GIE projects the Bears to win 4.7 games this season and has assigned virtually no probability of a conference title. Missouri State heads home against Lindenwood on Saturday—a winnable matchup that's essential for building confidence and momentum before the Conference USA gauntlet intensifies.