Texas A&M
Aggies · SEC
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
55%
Baseline projection.
-
vs TexasHome · Nov 28 -
at OklahomaAway · Nov 21 -
at South CarolinaAway · Nov 7 -
vs TennesseeHome · Nov 14 -
at AlabamaAway · Oct 24
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 96% (4/6 )
- Offensive line 50% (10/20 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 54% (19/35 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 38% (18/33 )
- Secondary 67% (16/26 )
- Special teams 78% (6/13 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
20 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Ryan Henderson DE ← San Diego State 171 impact
- Tawfiq Byard S ← Colorado 166 impact
- Houston Thomas TE ← UTSA 136 impact
- Ray Coney LB ← Tulsa 131 impact
- Richie Anderson TE ← Fresno State 118 impact
- Isaiah Horton WR ← Alabama 93 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 42.1% 81th — strong
- Red-zone TD rate 13.7% 38th — below avg
- 4th-down aggression 34.9% 43th — below avg
- Late & close 5.1 yds/play 53th — average
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5
vsMissouri StateConference USA99%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 12
vsArizona StateBig 1292%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19
vsKentuckySEC94%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
atLSUSEC73%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
vsArkansasSEC91%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
atMissouriSEC62%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17vsThe Citadel—
- Wk 8Oct 24
atAlabamaSEC60%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
atSouth CarolinaSEC82%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
vsTennesseeSEC74%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atOklahomaSEC50%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
vsTexasSEC71%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.