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2026 Week 9 · Conference game

Sam Houston at Missouri State

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

Plaster Sports Complex

Sam Houston
Conference USA
Record
1-3
Rating
-16.3
National rank
121
Proj. wins
4.8
Playoff prob.
0%
Missouri State
Conference USA
Record
1-3
Rating
-17.4
National rank
124
Proj. wins
4.4
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Sam Houston
43%
Missouri State
57%
Missouri State 90% CI: 48% – 66% Δ rating 1.1

Missouri State is the model's favorite at 57%. Sam Houston has a 43% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.4 rating points baked in for Missouri State — venue-specific learned value (n=5 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Sam Houston offense
41 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Missouri State offense
46 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Venue
Plaster Sports Complex
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
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