2026 Week 9 · Conference game
Sam Houston at Missouri State
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Plaster Sports Complex
Sam Houston
Conference USA
- Record
- 1-3
- Rating
- -16.3
- National rank
- 121
- Proj. wins
- 4.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Missouri State
Conference USA
- Record
- 1-3
- Rating
- -17.4
- National rank
- 124
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Sam Houston
43%
Missouri State
57%
Missouri State 90% CI: 48% – 66% Δ rating 1.1
Missouri State is the model's favorite at 57%. Sam Houston has a 43% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.4 rating points baked in for Missouri State — venue-specific learned value (n=5 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Sam Houston offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Missouri State offense
46 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Plaster Sports Complex
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No