Michigan: 2026 Week 12 recap

Michigan's 5–4 record masks a steeper decline than the standings suggest. GIE's rating dropped 1.5 points to 10 this week, reflecting last weekend's 15–6 home loss to Michigan State—a result that crystallized the Wolverines' offensive struggles. The red-zone TD rate of 16% reveals the core problem: Michigan reaches scoring position but can't finish. Third-down conversion sits at 43%, and late-game leverage performance (4.33) suggests the team folds when margins tighten. GIE projects zero playoff probability and zero conference-title probability; the model sees this season as effectively decided. Michigan travels to Oregon on Saturday with nothing left to play for except pride and draft positioning.