Missouri State: 2026 Week 12 recap

Missouri State sits at 3–6 with a rating of −14, a modest 2.9-point climb from the prior week after a narrow 20–23 road loss to Florida International in Week 10. The Bears' offensive efficiency remains a constraint—a 19% red-zone touchdown rate and 37% third-down conversion rate underscore why they're generating just 3.9 expected wins despite nine games played. GIE projects zero playoff probability and zero conference title odds, reflecting the mathematical gap between their current standing and postseason viability. Missouri State hosts New Mexico State this week, a game that won't alter their season trajectory but offers a chance to build momentum heading into the final stretch.