College football, by the numbers · powered by GIE
4thand4cast — Daily college football rankings, projections, and analysis powered by GIE
Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
Sun Belt 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Sun Belt enters 2026 in a state of flux. **James Madison** and **Old Dominion** have separated themselves as the conference's most capable programs, but the model sees a steep climb for either to…
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Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
SEC 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The SEC enters 2026 with a familiar shape: a tight cluster of elite contenders at the top, a canyon of separation below them, and a lower half still searching for traction. **Georgia** and **Ole Miss…
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Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
Pac-12 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Pac-12 enters 2026 as a conference in motion—not quite a power league, not quite a mid-major, but a collection of programs with genuine upside and real ceiling questions. San Diego State sits ato…
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Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
Mountain West 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Mountain West enters 2026 in a state of competitive flux. UNLV and Hawai'i have emerged as clear favorites to win the conference, each carrying roughly 28% championship probability according to G…
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Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
Mid-American 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Mid-American Conference enters 2026 with a clear hierarchy and a decisive favorite. Toledo sits atop the league with a 47% chance to win the conference title, a projection built on nearly nine ex…
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Way Too Early Top 25
Full rankings →Preliminary 2026 projection · directional only, full GIE projections land once rosters publish in mid-July.
- 1
IndianaBig Ten32.4
Rating
- 2
Ohio StateBig Ten31.6
Rating
- 3
Texas TechBig 1227.6
Rating
- 4
OregonBig Ten27.4
Rating
- 5
GeorgiaSEC25.6
Rating
- 6
Notre DameFBS Independents25.4
Rating
- 7
Ole MissSEC24.5
Rating
- 8
UtahBig 1222.2
Rating
- 9
MiamiACC21.7
Rating
- 10
Texas A&MSEC21.7
Rating
- 11
VanderbiltSEC20.0
Rating
- 12
IowaBig Ten19.7
Rating
- 13
WashingtonBig Ten18.9
Rating
- 14
OklahomaSEC18.8
Rating
- 15
USCBig Ten17.9
Rating
- 16
TexasSEC17.7
Rating
- 17
Penn StateBig Ten17.6
Rating
- 18
AlabamaSEC16.3
Rating
- 19
TennesseeSEC16.0
Rating
- 20
BYUBig 1215.6
Rating
- 21
MissouriSEC14.9
Rating
- 22
MichiganBig Ten13.4
Rating
- 23
SMUACC13.4
Rating
- 24
North TexasAmerican Athletic13.1
Rating
- 25
IllinoisBig Ten12.9
Rating
Underdog Watch
2026 Week 1Games where GIE thinks the underdog has a real, non-coin-flip path. Win probability shown is for the underdog. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
