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Kansas State

Wildcats · Big 12

Head coach Chris Klieman Year 7 with Kansas State

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
6.9
Expected wins
7-5
Proj record
4 to 10
Win range (90%)
#47 (24–74)
Final rank (90%)
1%
Make playoff
1%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

1%

Baseline projection.

  • at Iowa State
    Away · Nov 28
  • at TCU
    Away · Nov 14
  • at Cincinnati
    Away · Sep 26
  • vs Arizona
    Home · Nov 21
  • at Arizona State
    Away · Oct 24

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

62 PCI
  • Quarterback 80% (4/5 players)
  • Offensive line 60% (12/20 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 49% (17/35 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 55% (18/33 players)
  • Secondary 46% (11/24 players)
  • Special teams 67% (4/6 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 36.2% 45th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 17.6% 76th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 43.8% 82th — strong
  • Late & close 6.9 yds/play 89th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Kansas State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Kansas State sits at 6–6 after a 24–14 home win over Colorado in Week 14, a result that steadied the ship for a team treading water in the middle of the Big 12. The Wildcats' current GIE rating of 7 places them at 42nd…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.