2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Kansas State at Cincinnati
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Nippert Stadium
Kansas State
Big 12
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 14.4
- National rank
- 24
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 27%
Cincinnati
Big 12
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 8.0
- National rank
- 42
- Proj. wins
- 7.5
- Playoff prob.
- 10%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Kansas State
62%
Cincinnati
38%
Cincinnati 90% CI: 29% – 47% Δ rating 6.4
Kansas State is the model's favorite at 62%. Cincinnati has a 38% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Cincinnati — venue-specific learned value (n=56 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Kansas State offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Cincinnati offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
55°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
4 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Nippert Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No