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Cincinnati

Bearcats · Big 12

Head coach Scott Satterfield Year 3 with Cincinnati

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs SP+ expected · n=21

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
5.8
Expected wins
6-6
Proj record
3 to 9
Win range (90%)
#59 (32–85)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Utah
    Home · Oct 31
  • at Iowa State
    Away · Nov 14
  • at Arizona
    Away · Oct 3
  • at Houston
    Away · Nov 7
  • vs Kansas State
    Home · Sep 26

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

60 PCI
  • Quarterback 67% (4/6 players)
  • Offensive line 69% (11/16 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 46% (13/28 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 61% (22/36 players)
  • Secondary 55% (12/22 players)
  • Special teams 38% (3/8 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Brendan Sorsby)

GIE projects a -4.9 rating drop and a -19.4pp shift in playoff probability if Cincinnati loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 37.1% 51th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 22.6% 95th — elite
  • 4th-down aggression 36.8% 53th — average
  • Late & close 4.4 yds/play 29th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Cincinnati: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Cincinnati sits at 7–6 after a lopsided 45–23 loss to TCU in Week 14, a result that underscores the Bearcats' inconsistency down the stretch. GIE rates them at 4.5, placing them 56th nationally—a middle-tier squad that has struggled to…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.