2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Cincinnati at Arizona
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 3:00 AM UTC
Arizona Stadium
Cincinnati
Big 12
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 8.0
- National rank
- 42
- Proj. wins
- 7.5
- Playoff prob.
- 10%
Arizona
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 9.8
- National rank
- 38
- Proj. wins
- 6.0
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Cincinnati
33%
Arizona
67%
Arizona 90% CI: 58% – 75% Δ rating 1.8
Arizona is the model's favorite at 67%. Cincinnati has a 33% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.8 rating points baked in for Arizona — venue-specific learned value (n=53 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Cincinnati offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Arizona offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
84°F
Precipitation
2%
Wind
3 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 3:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Arizona Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No