Wildcats · Big 12
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
1%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
23 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Arizona sits at No. 31 with a 1–0 record after a dominant 35–7 home win over Northern Arizona in Week 1. The rating held steady at 9.5 despite the convincing victory, suggesting GIE viewed the opponent matchup as expected rather than…
Arizona is operating at a 1650 ELO—the floor for a bowl-eligible team. Seven wins is the modal outcome. That's not a rebuild narrative. That's not a direction. That's standing still while the conference passes.
Arizona's rating holds steady at 1650 ELO, a midpoint that reflects a program caught between modest competence and the variance that defines mid-tier college football. The model projects 7.1 wins across a 12-game schedule—a number that…
Arizona's Elo sits at 1650—middle of the FBS pack. The win distribution says 7 wins is the mode. That's not a ceiling. That's the expectation. Bowl eligibility as a best-case scenario, not a floor. The Wildcats aren't rebuilding. They're…
Arizona's rating holds steady at 1650 ELO, a reflection of a program caught in the middle band of college football — capable enough to win seven or eight games in a typical season, but without the margin for error that separates…
Arizona's preseason ELO sits at 1650—right where a 7-win team should live. The model gives them a 20% shot at 9 wins, a 73% shot at finishing 6-8. Brent Brennan's rebuild is on schedule, which is another way of saying it's still a rebuild.
Arizona's 1650 ELO rating—a midfield projection that yields 7.1 expected wins—represents a program caught in the statistical middle of the Power Four landscape. The win distribution tells the story: the modal outcome is 7 wins (19.89%…
Arizona's ELO rating: 1650. Expected wins: 7.09. The math says they're a .500 team playing in a conference that doesn't accept .500 teams anymore. That's not a hot take—it's a structural problem wearing a schedule.
Arizona's rating sits at 1650 ELO, a mark that projects to 7.1 wins across a full schedule—comfortably in bowl territory, though the distribution tells a more instructive story about the program's variance.
Arizona's preseason Elo is 1650. That's not a typo—it's genuinely the floor. The model gives them a 19% shot at 7 wins, 68% at 6 or fewer. They're not a team with upside surprises waiting; they're a team that needs to exceed expectations…
Arizona's rating held flat at 1650 ELO this week, a stasis that reflects both the early-season nature of the preseason projection and the absence of new game data to shift the model's assessment. With no contests yet played, the Wildcats…
Arizona's Elo sits at 1650—exactly where a team with a 7-win expectation belongs. The distribution is sharp: 39% chance they land between 6 and 8 wins. That's not volatility. That's consensus. Everyone agrees on what Arizona is.
Arizona's rating holds steady at 1650 ELO, a signal that the model sees no material change in the program's competitive standing this week. The distribution of outcomes tells a sharper story than the single number: the Wildcats cluster…
Arizona's 1650 ELO says they're a coin-flip team in most games this season. The model gives them a 7.1-win expectation. That's not a ceiling—that's the mean. They're as likely to finish 6-6 as 8-4. The Wildcats are built on variance,…
Arizona's Elo rating sits at 1650, placing the program squarely in the middle tier of college football—competitive enough to win a bowl game, not quite positioned to contend for a conference title. The model distributes their 2026 wins…
Arizona's preseason Elo is 1650. That's a 7.1-win expectation in a 12-game season. The math says they're a middle-tier Pac-12 team with no margin for error. One loss to a peer becomes two. Two becomes a bowl game that nobody remembers.…
Arizona's rating holds steady at 1650 ELO, a mark that reflects a program caught between ambition and execution. With no games played this week, the model offers a clean snapshot of where the Wildcats stand before their schedule unfolds:…
Arizona sits at No. 28 in GIE's ratings after a convincing 23–7 win over Arizona State in Week 14. The Wildcats' 9–4 record reflects a team that's steadied itself in Big 12 play, and that rivalry victory underscored their ability to…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
