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2026 Week 3

Northern Illinois at Arizona

Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT

Arizona Stadium

Northern Illinois
Mountain West
Record
0-0
Rating
-16.7
National rank
128
Proj. wins
3.6
Playoff prob.
0%
Arizona
Big 12
Record
0-0
Rating
12.0
National rank
28
Proj. wins
7.1
Playoff prob.
3%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Northern Illinois
2%
Arizona
98%
Arizona 90% CI: 98% – 99% Δ rating 28.7

Arizona is the model's favorite at 98%. Northern Illinois has a 2% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.8 rating points baked in for Arizona — venue-specific learned value (n=53 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Northern Illinois offense
28 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

Arizona offense
36 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Venue
Arizona Stadium
Conference game
No
Neutral site
No

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