2026 Week 3
Northern Illinois at Arizona
Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Arizona Stadium
Northern Illinois
Mountain West
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -16.7
- National rank
- 128
- Proj. wins
- 3.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Arizona
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 12.0
- National rank
- 28
- Proj. wins
- 7.1
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Northern Illinois
2%
Arizona
98%
Arizona 90% CI: 98% – 99% Δ rating 28.7
Arizona is the model's favorite at 98%. Northern Illinois has a 2% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.8 rating points baked in for Arizona — venue-specific learned value (n=53 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Northern Illinois offense
28 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Arizona offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Arizona Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No