Tennessee
Volunteers · SEC
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
10%
Baseline projection.
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at VanderbiltAway · Nov 28 -
at Texas A&MAway · Nov 14 -
at South CarolinaAway · Oct 24 -
vs AlabamaHome · Oct 17 -
at ArkansasAway · Oct 10
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 2% (2/4 )
- Offensive line 63% (10/16 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 60% (16/28 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 58% (19/35 )
- Secondary 41% (8/21 )
- Special teams 73% (4/6 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
20 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Amare Campbell LB ← Penn State 152 impact
- DJ Burks DB ← App State 121 impact
- Qua Moss DB ← Kansas State 121 impact
- Jordan Norman DL ← Tulane 114 impact
- TJ Metcalf DB ← Michigan 107 impact
- Javin Gordon RB ← Tulane 85 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 44.6% 91th — elite
- Red-zone TD rate 17.1% 72th — strong
- 4th-down aggression 41.0% 70th — strong
- Late & close 6.2 yds/play 78th — strong
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5vsFurman—
- Wk 2Sep 12
atGeorgia TechACC60%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19
vsKennesaw StateConference USA95%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
vsTexasSEC54%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
vsAuburnSEC68%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
atArkansasSEC72%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsAlabamaSEC58%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
atSouth CarolinaSEC70%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
vsKentuckySEC88%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
atTexas A&MSEC26%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
vsLSUSEC71%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
atVanderbiltSEC27%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.