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Tennessee

Volunteers · SEC

Head coach Josh Heupel Year 6 with Tennessee

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
7.3
Expected wins
7-5
Proj record
4 to 10
Win range (90%)
#24 (10–45)
Final rank (90%)
10%
Make playoff
4%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

10%

Baseline projection.

  • at Vanderbilt
    Away · Nov 28
  • at Texas A&M
    Away · Nov 14
  • at South Carolina
    Away · Oct 24
  • vs Alabama
    Home · Oct 17
  • at Arkansas
    Away · Oct 10

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

42 score
  • Quarterback 2% (2/4 )
  • Offensive line 63% (10/16 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 60% (16/28 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 58% (19/35 )
  • Secondary 41% (8/21 )
  • Special teams 73% (4/6 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.9 rating

20 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

  • Amare Campbell LB ← Penn State 152 impact
  • DJ Burks DB ← App State 121 impact
  • Qua Moss DB ← Kansas State 121 impact
  • Jordan Norman DL ← Tulane 114 impact
  • TJ Metcalf DB ← Michigan 107 impact
  • Javin Gordon RB ← Tulane 85 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 44.6% 91th — elite
  • Red-zone TD rate 17.1% 72th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 41.0% 70th — strong
  • Late & close 6.2 yds/play 78th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.