2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Texas at Tennessee
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Neyland Stadium
Texas
SEC
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 24.1
- National rank
- 6
- Proj. wins
- 7.9
- Playoff prob.
- 26%
Tennessee
SEC
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 20.2
- National rank
- 10
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 54%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Texas
61%
Tennessee
39%
Tennessee 90% CI: 30% – 48% Δ rating 3.9
Texas is the model's favorite at 61%. Tennessee has a 39% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.2 rating points baked in for Tennessee — venue-specific learned value (n=61 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Texas offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Tennessee offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
78°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
7 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Neyland Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No