2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Texas at Tennessee
Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Neyland Stadium
Texas
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 16.2
- National rank
- 17
- Proj. wins
- 6.9
- Playoff prob.
- 15%
Tennessee
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 15.0
- National rank
- 19
- Proj. wins
- 7.3
- Playoff prob.
- 10%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Texas
53%
Tennessee
47%
Tennessee 90% CI: 38% – 56% Δ rating 1.2
Texas is the model's favorite at 53%. Tennessee has a 47% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.2 rating points baked in for Tennessee — venue-specific learned value (n=61 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Texas offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Tennessee offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Neyland Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No