2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Auburn at Tennessee
Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Neyland Stadium
Auburn
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 11.6
- National rank
- 29
- Proj. wins
- 6.5
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
Tennessee
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 15.0
- National rank
- 19
- Proj. wins
- 7.3
- Playoff prob.
- 10%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Auburn
39%
Tennessee
61%
Tennessee 90% CI: 52% – 69% Δ rating 3.4
Tennessee is the model's favorite at 61%. Auburn has a 39% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.2 rating points baked in for Tennessee — venue-specific learned value (n=61 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Auburn offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Tennessee offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Neyland Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No