2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Auburn at Tennessee
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Neyland Stadium
Auburn
SEC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 11.6
- National rank
- 31
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Tennessee
SEC
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 20.2
- National rank
- 10
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 54%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Auburn
25%
Tennessee
75%
Tennessee 90% CI: 67% – 81% Δ rating 8.6
Tennessee is the model's favorite at 75%. Auburn has a 25% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.2 rating points baked in for Tennessee — venue-specific learned value (n=61 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Auburn offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Tennessee offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Drizzle
Temperature
73°F
Precipitation
44%
Wind
3 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Neyland Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No