Crimson Tide · SEC
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
10%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
21 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Alabama's 1685 ELO translates to a 6-win expectation. That's not a rebuild. That's a program humbled to middle-of-the-pack probability. The dynasty didn't crater overnight—it eroded across three seasons of recruiting misses and scheme…
Alabama's rating sits at 1685 ELO, a figure that reflects a program in transition rather than crisis—but also not yet the kind of structural advantage the brand has historically carried into a season.
Alabama came in at 1685 ELO—a program still operating at elite leverage. That's not a punishment. That's the cost of recruiting like the SEC's most aggressive buyer and then having to prove it matters. The model gives them 6.9 expected…
Alabama's rating held steady at 1685 ELO this week, a stasis that reflects neither the volatility of a program in flux nor the stability of one locked into a predictable trajectory. The model distributes the Crimson Tide across a range of…
Alabama's 1685 ELO is 47 points below last season's peak. That's the difference between a playoff team and one watching from home. Saban built this program on never standing still. His successor inherited the blueprint but not the margin…
Alabama's rating holds steady at 1685 ELO, a posture that reflects neither momentum nor crisis—just the baseline expectation of a program operating at the tier it has occupied for most of the last two decades.
Alabama's preseason ELO is 1685 — elite by any measure, top-five national. Zero games played. The model hasn't seen them execute anything yet. That gap between what they look like on paper and what they actually are is the entire season.…
Alabama's Elo rating remains flat at 1685 this week, a stasis that masks a season sitting at an inflection point. With no recent games to process, the model's expectation—6.96 wins across a full slate—reflects a team in the middle band of…
Alabama's ELO rating flatlined at 1685 this week—no movement, no momentum. The model's 6.96 expected wins suggests a team treading water between mediocrity and competence. That's not a floor. That's a ceiling pretending to be stable.
Alabama's rating held flat at 1685 ELO this week, a stasis that obscures the real story: the model sees a 35.8% probability the program finishes with eight or fewer wins, and a 17.8% chance of exactly seven. That's not a program in…
Alabama's Elo sits at 1685—elite company on paper. But that number is almost entirely inherited from prior seasons. Zero new points this week means the team hasn't played yet. The model gives them a 68% shot at 7+ wins. That's not a…
Alabama's rating held flat this week at 1685 ELO, a stasis that reflects the preseason moment: no games played, no new information to process. The model's expected-wins distribution tells the fuller story.
GIE ranks Alabama 11 spots lower than the CFP Committee at #20, reflecting meaningful concerns about recent performance that consensus rankings haven't fully captured. The 28-7 home loss to Georgia in Week 15 exposed significant…
GIE's #20 ranking for Alabama sits nine spots below the AP Poll's #11, a divergence rooted in how the model processes recent performance versus reputation. The 28-7 loss to Georgia in Week 15 carries substantial weight in GIE's…
Alabama's 2026 season exists in a statistical dead zone: 6.96 expected wins, which means they're positioned to finish somewhere between "bowl-eligible disaster" and "minor bowl participant." The model gives them a 17.2% shot at 8 wins.…
Alabama's preseason rating sits at 1685 ELO, a figure that reflects neither dramatic improvement nor collapse from the prior year—just the baseline expectation for a program of its historical caliber entering an uncertain 2026 season. The…
Alabama's 1685 ELO is real-estate-tier valuable, but the model gives them a 6.9-win median. That's not a floor. That's a ceiling masquerading as baseline. One injury, one scheme adjustment, one loss to a team they're supposed to beat—and…
Alabama's rating held flat at 1685 ELO this week, a stasis that reflects the pre-season uncertainty baked into any projection system before meaningful data arrives. The model distributes the Crimson Tide across a wide range of outcomes:…
Alabama sits at No. 20 in GIE's ratings after a 28–7 home loss to Georgia in Week 15—a decisive defeat that underscored the gap between the Crimson Tide and the SEC's elite. The 21-point margin represents a significant setback for a team…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
