2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Alabama at Mississippi State
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Davis Wade Stadium
Alabama
SEC
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 19.5
- National rank
- 11
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 54%
Mississippi State
SEC
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 12.0
- National rank
- 29
- Proj. wins
- 8.4
- Playoff prob.
- 51%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Alabama
64%
Mississippi State
36%
Mississippi State 90% CI: 28% – 45% Δ rating 7.5
Alabama is the model's favorite at 64%. Mississippi State has a 36% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.8 rating points baked in for Mississippi State — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Alabama offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Mississippi State offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Light drizzle
Temperature
74°F
Precipitation
20%
Wind
2 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Davis Wade Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No