2026 Week 3
Florida State at Alabama
Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Bryant-Denny Stadium
Florida State
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 7.2
- National rank
- 41
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
Alabama
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 14.8
- National rank
- 20
- Proj. wins
- 6.9
- Playoff prob.
- 10%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Florida State
15%
Alabama
85%
Alabama 90% CI: 80% – 89% Δ rating 7.6
Alabama is the model's favorite at 85%. Florida State has a 15% path. Home-field adjustment of +6.5 rating points baked in for Alabama — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Florida State offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Alabama offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Bryant-Denny Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No