Florida State: 2026 Week 3 recap

Florida State sits at No. 35 overall with a 1–0 record after dispatching New Mexico State 34–17 in Week 1, though GIE's rating hasn't budged—it remains 9.1. The Seminoles' red-zone efficiency tells a cautionary tale: they converted touchdowns on just 19.9% of trips inside the 20, suggesting they left significant points on the field against inferior competition. Third-down conversion rate of 45.5% shows inconsistency moving the chains, a problem that compounds in tighter games. GIE projects 6.5 expected wins this season, with near-zero playoff odds (1.03%) and a 2.14% conference championship probability. FSU faces SMU at home this week—a step up in competition that will reveal whether last week's dominant yardage translated to sustainable execution or masked deeper offensive issues.