Utah
Utes · Big 12
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
74%
Baseline projection.
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at CincinnatiAway · Oct 31 -
at TCUAway · Nov 21 -
vs BYUHome · Nov 7 -
at ArizonaAway · Nov 14 -
at Iowa StateAway · Sep 26
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 100% (2/5 )
- Offensive line 56% (10/18 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 51% (15/33 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 43% (19/32 )
- Secondary 43% (14/22 )
- Special teams 100% (3/6 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
17 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Braden Pegan WR ← Utah State 171 impact
- Ethan Day DE ← North Texas 158 impact
- Kyri Shoels WR ← San José State 140 impact
- Elijah Reed CB ← Akron 114 impact
- James Chenault CB ← South Florida 84 impact
- Steve Chavez-Soto RB ← San José State 65 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 5.2 rating drop and a 20.8pp shift in playoff probability if Utah loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 50.0% 99th — elite
- Red-zone TD rate 15.6% 60th — average
- 4th-down aggression 44.3% 84th — strong
- Late & close 7.9 yds/play 94th — elite
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 4
vsIdahoSun Belt— - Wk 2Sep 13
vsArkansasSEC92%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19
vsUtah StatePac-1297%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
atIowa StateBig 1277%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
vsKansasBig 1293%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
atColoradoBig 1297%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
vsHoustonBig 1290%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
atCincinnatiBig 1287%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
vsBYUBig 1275%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
atArizonaBig 1272%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atTCUBig 1281%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
vsWest VirginiaBig 1298%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.