Utah

Utes · Big 12

Head coach Kyle Whittingham

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

9.4

Expected wins

9-3

Proj record

6 to 12

Win range (90%)

#9 (3–20)

Final rank (90%)

74%

Make playoff

15%

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

74%

Baseline projection.

at Cincinnati

Away · Oct 31
at TCU

Away · Nov 21
vs BYU

Home · Nov 7
at Arizona

Away · Nov 14
at Iowa State

Away · Sep 26

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

38 PCI

Quarterback 20% (1/5 players)
Offensive line 71% (12/17 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 26% (9/35 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 50% (14/28 players)
Secondary 32% (6/19 players)
Special teams 40% (2/5 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Devon Dampier)

GIE projects a 5.2 rating drop and a 20.8pp shift in playoff probability if Utah loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 50.0% 99th — elite
Red-zone TD rate 15.6% 60th — average
4th-down aggression 44.3% 84th — strong
Late & close 7.9 yds/play 94th — elite

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Utah will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.