4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Utah

Utes · Big 12

Head coach Morgan Scalley Year 1 with Utah

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
9.4
Expected wins
9-3
Proj record
6 to 12
Win range (90%)
#9 (3–19)
Final rank (90%)
74%
Make playoff
15%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

74%

Baseline projection.

  • at Cincinnati
    Away · Oct 31
  • at TCU
    Away · Nov 21
  • vs BYU
    Home · Nov 7
  • at Arizona
    Away · Nov 14
  • at Iowa State
    Away · Sep 26

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

67 score
  • Quarterback 100% (2/5 )
  • Offensive line 56% (10/18 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 51% (15/33 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 43% (19/32 )
  • Secondary 43% (14/22 )
  • Special teams 100% (3/6 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.6 rating

17 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

  • Braden Pegan WR ← Utah State 171 impact
  • Ethan Day DE ← North Texas 158 impact
  • Kyri Shoels WR ← San José State 140 impact
  • Elijah Reed CB ← Akron 114 impact
  • James Chenault CB ← South Florida 84 impact
  • Steve Chavez-Soto RB ← San José State 65 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

If QB1 is out (Devon Dampier)

GIE projects a 5.2 rating drop and a 20.8pp shift in playoff probability if Utah loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 50.0% 99th — elite
  • Red-zone TD rate 15.6% 60th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 44.3% 84th — strong
  • Late & close 7.9 yds/play 94th — elite

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.