2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Utah at Iowa State
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Jack Trice Stadium
Utah
Big 12
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 17.0
- National rank
- 19
- Proj. wins
- 8.4
- Playoff prob.
- 38%
Iowa State
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 5.8
- National rank
- 52
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Utah
63%
Iowa State
37%
Iowa State 90% CI: 29% – 46% Δ rating 11.2
Utah is the model's favorite at 63%. Iowa State has a 37% path. Home-field adjustment of +6.9 rating points baked in for Iowa State — venue-specific learned value (n=56 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Utah offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Iowa State offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
60°F
Precipitation
66%
Wind
9 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Jack Trice Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No