Vanderbilt
Commodores · SEC
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
53%
Baseline projection.
-
at FloridaAway · Nov 21 -
at Mississippi StateAway · Nov 7 -
at KentuckyAway · Oct 24 -
vs TennesseeHome · Nov 28 -
vs AlabamaHome · Nov 14
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 6% (3/6 )
- Offensive line 50% (9/18 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 57% (18/32 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 50% (20/30 )
- Secondary 72% (14/20 )
- Special teams 33% (4/7 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
21 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Ricardo Jones S ← Clemson 153 impact
- Jayvontay Conner TE ← East Carolina 135 impact
- Ja'Cory Thomas WR ← Old Dominion 130 impact
- Talan Carter DL ← Jacksonville State 117 impact
- Edwin Kolenge EDGE ← Boston College 53 impact
- Brian Allen Jr. EDGE ← Iowa 34 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 45.7% 94th — elite
- Red-zone TD rate 18.2% 80th — strong
- 4th-down aggression 42.9% 78th — strong
- Late & close 4.8 yds/play 42th — below avg
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5vsAustin Peay—
- Wk 2Sep 12
vsDelawareConference USA99%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19
vsNC StateACC90%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
atAuburnSEC68%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atGeorgiaSEC31%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
vsOle MissSEC46%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsArkansasSEC90%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
atKentuckySEC88%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
atMississippi StateSEC85%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
vsAlabamaSEC73%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atFloridaSEC86%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
vsTennesseeSEC73%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.