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Georgia

Bulldogs · SEC

Head coach Kirby Smart Year 10 with Georgia

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
8.7
Expected wins
9-3
Proj record
6 to 11
Win range (90%)
#8 (2–18)
Final rank (90%)
82%
Make playoff
28%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

82%

Baseline projection.

  • at South Carolina
    Away · Nov 21
  • vs Missouri
    Home · Nov 14
  • at Arkansas
    Away · Sep 19
  • vs Oklahoma
    Home · Sep 26
  • vs Vanderbilt
    Home · Oct 3

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

57 PCI
  • Quarterback 43% (3/7 players)
  • Offensive line 61% (14/23 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 71% (29/41 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 57% (17/30 players)
  • Secondary 58% (14/24 players)
  • Special teams 64% (7/11 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 44.7% 92th — elite
  • Red-zone TD rate 21.3% 91th — elite
  • 4th-down aggression 40.0% 66th — average
  • Late & close 5.3 yds/play 56th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Georgia: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Georgia sits at No. 6 overall after dismantling Alabama 28–7 on the road in Week 15, a statement that the Bulldogs' defense remains among the nation's most suffocating units. At 12–2, they've cemented themselves as a top-tier program,…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.