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West Virginia

Mountaineers · Big 12

Head coach Rich Rodriguez Year 2 with West Virginia

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
4.0
Expected wins
4-7
Proj record
1 to 7
Win range (90%)
#97 (76–118)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Coastal Carolina
    Home · Sep 5
  • vs UT Martin
    Home · Sep 12
  • vs Oklahoma State
    Home · Sep 26
  • vs Cincinnati
    Home · Oct 17

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

26 score
  • Quarterback 52% (3/7 )
  • Offensive line 33% (7/21 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 4% (5/32 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 14% (10/32 )
  • Secondary 6% (4/25 )
  • Special teams 0% (3/8 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+2.2 rating

35 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

  • Cam Cook RB ← Jacksonville State 272 impact
  • Kamari Wilson S ← Memphis 179 impact
  • Zeke Durham-Campbell DL ← Coastal Carolina 164 impact
  • Harper Holloman EDGE ← Western Kentucky 129 impact
  • DJ Epps WR ← Troy 94 impact
  • Andrew Powdrell S ← UNLV 93 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

If QB1 is out (Scotty Fox Jr.)

GIE projects a -6.0 rating drop and a -24.2pp shift in playoff probability if West Virginia loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 30.2% 16th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 13.0% 33th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 42.0% 74th — strong
  • Late & close 4.4 yds/play 28th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.