West Virginia
Mountaineers · Big 12
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
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vs Coastal CarolinaHome · Sep 5 - vs UT MartinHome · Sep 12
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vs Oklahoma StateHome · Sep 26 -
vs CincinnatiHome · Oct 17
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 52% (3/7 )
- Offensive line 33% (7/21 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 4% (5/32 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 14% (10/32 )
- Secondary 6% (4/25 )
- Special teams 0% (3/8 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
35 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Cam Cook RB ← Jacksonville State 272 impact
- Kamari Wilson S ← Memphis 179 impact
- Zeke Durham-Campbell DL ← Coastal Carolina 164 impact
- Harper Holloman EDGE ← Western Kentucky 129 impact
- DJ Epps WR ← Troy 94 impact
- Andrew Powdrell S ← UNLV 93 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -6.0 rating drop and a -24.2pp shift in playoff probability if West Virginia loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 30.2% 16th — bottom tier
- Red-zone TD rate 13.0% 33th — below avg
- 4th-down aggression 42.0% 74th — strong
- Late & close 4.4 yds/play 28th — below avg
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5
vsCoastal CarolinaSun Belt79%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 12vsUT Martin—
- Wk 3Sep 19
vsVirginia· neutralACC10%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
vsOklahoma StateBig 1279%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atIowa StateBig 128%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
vsArizonaBig 1212%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsCincinnatiBig 1225%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
atTCUBig 1210%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
atTexas TechBig 121%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
vsKansasBig 1226%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
vsHoustonBig 1219%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
atUtahBig 122%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.