2026 Week 5 · Conference game
West Virginia at Iowa State
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Jack Trice Stadium
West Virginia
Big 12
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 3.8
- National rank
- 61
- Proj. wins
- 8.2
- Playoff prob.
- 19%
Iowa State
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 5.8
- National rank
- 52
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
West Virginia
25%
Iowa State
75%
Iowa State 90% CI: 68% – 82% Δ rating 2.0
Iowa State is the model's favorite at 75%. West Virginia has a 25% path. Home-field adjustment of +6.9 rating points baked in for Iowa State — venue-specific learned value (n=56 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
West Virginia offense
33 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Iowa State offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Drizzle
Temperature
67°F
Precipitation
23%
Wind
13 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Jack Trice Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No