4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Nebraska

Cornhuskers · Big Ten

Head coach Matt Rhule Year 3 with Nebraska

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs SP+ expected · n=21

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
5.5
Expected wins
5-7
Proj record
3 to 9
Win range (90%)
#54 (28–78)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • at Illinois
    Away · Nov 7
  • vs Washington
    Home · Oct 31
  • at Rutgers
    Away · Nov 14
  • at Michigan State
    Away · Sep 26
  • vs Maryland
    Home · Oct 3

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

65 PCI
  • Quarterback 80% (4/5 players)
  • Offensive line 68% (15/22 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 47% (20/43 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 56% (24/43 players)
  • Secondary 65% (20/31 players)
  • Special teams 57% (4/7 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Dylan Raiola)

GIE projects a -20.6 rating drop and a -82.3pp shift in playoff probability if Nebraska loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=4 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 41.5% 78th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 15.9% 64th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 42.9% 78th — strong
  • Late & close 5.1 yds/play 53th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Nebraska: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Nebraska sits at 46th overall with a 7–6 record and a GIE rating of 6.2. Last week's 40–16 home loss to Iowa was a decisive setback that underscored the Cornhuskers' defensive vulnerabilities late in the season. The margin—24…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.