2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Nebraska at Michigan State
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 9:00 PM UTC
Spartan Stadium
Nebraska
Big Ten
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 14.5
- National rank
- 23
- Proj. wins
- 8.4
- Playoff prob.
- 36%
Michigan State
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 2.3
- National rank
- 65
- Proj. wins
- 6.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Nebraska
81%
Michigan State
19%
Michigan State 90% CI: 14% – 25% Δ rating 12.2
Nebraska is the model's favorite at 81%. Michigan State has a 19% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.4 rating points baked in for Michigan State — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Nebraska offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Michigan State offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
58°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
5 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 9:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Spartan Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No