Texas Tech

Red Raiders · Big 12

Head coach Joey McGuire Year 4 with Texas Tech

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs SP+ expected · n=59

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

10.7

Expected wins

11-1

Proj record

9 to 12

Win range (90%)

#4 (1–9)

Final rank (90%)

98%

Make playoff

72%

Win conference

Path to Glory

Interactive playoff-probability scenarios — coming when the 2026 schedule loads.

Once CFBD publishes the 2026 schedule and we run conditional sims against it, this section becomes interactive: tap a Win or Loss on each of Texas Tech's 5 pivotal games and watch the playoff probability shift. Schedule typically lands mid-July; first sims a few days after.

Until then, the model is still computing Texas Tech's preliminary 2026 rating — see the Way Too Early Top 25 on the homepage for the headline number.

Returning production · 2025

52 PCI

Quarterback 50% (2/4 players)
Offensive line 45% (10/22 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 50% (15/30 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 70% (23/33 players)
Secondary 54% (14/26 players)
Special teams 43% (3/7 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Behren Morton)

GIE projects a -2.5 rating drop and a -9.9pp shift in playoff probability if Texas Tech loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 44.0% 89th — strong
Red-zone TD rate 12.6% 29th — below avg
4th-down aggression 28.4% 17th — bottom tier
Late & close 6.7 yds/play 88th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Texas Tech will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.