Texas Tech
Red Raiders · Big 12
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Interactive playoff-probability scenarios — coming when the 2026 schedule loads.
Once CFBD publishes the 2026 schedule and we run conditional sims against it, this section becomes interactive: tap a Win or Loss on each of Texas Tech's 5 pivotal games and watch the playoff probability shift. Schedule typically lands mid-July; first sims a few days after.
Until then, the model is still computing Texas Tech's preliminary 2026 rating — see the Way Too Early Top 25 on the homepage for the headline number.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 26% (3/5 )
- Offensive line 80% (16/20 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 72% (15/28 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 37% (11/30 )
- Secondary 68% (14/23 )
- Special teams 18% (3/5 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Trey White LB ← San Diego State 216 impact
- Adam Trick LB ← Miami (OH) 206 impact
- Jamond Mathis LB ← Kent State 168 impact
- Julien Laventure DL ← Akron 161 impact
- Jett Carpenter TE ← Nevada 147 impact
- Kenny Johnson WR ← Pittsburgh 121 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -2.5 rating drop and a -9.9pp shift in playoff probability if Texas Tech loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 44.0% 89th — strong
- Red-zone TD rate 12.6% 29th — below avg
- 4th-down aggression 28.4% 17th — bottom tier
- Late & close 6.7 yds/play 88th — strong
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5vsAbilene Christian—
- Wk 2Sep 12
atOregon StatePac-1299%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19
vsHoustonBig 1294%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
vsSam HoustonConference USA100%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atColoradoBig 1298%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsArizona StateBig 1296%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
atCincinnatiBig 1293%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
vsArizonaBig 1291%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
vsWest VirginiaBig 1299%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
atOklahoma StateBig 1299%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atBaylorBig 1295%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 27
vsTCUBig 1294%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.