Texas Tech
Red Raiders · Big 12
Season Projection · 2026 W5
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
28%
Baseline projection.
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at CincinnatiAway · Oct 24 -
at CincinnatiAway · Oct 24 -
at BaylorAway · Nov 21 -
at Oklahoma StateAway · Nov 14 -
vs TCUHome · Nov 27
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 26% (3/5 )
- Offensive line 80% (16/20 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 72% (15/28 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 37% (11/30 )
- Secondary 68% (14/23 )
- Special teams 18% (3/5 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
20 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Trey White LB ← San Diego State 216 impact
- Adam Trick LB ← Miami (OH) 206 impact
- Jamond Mathis LB ← Kent State 168 impact
- Julien Laventure DL ← Akron 161 impact
- Jett Carpenter TE ← Nevada 147 impact
- Tommy Castellanos QB ← Florida State 137 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -2.5 rating drop and a -9.9pp shift in playoff probability if Texas Tech loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 44.0% 89th — strong
- Red-zone TD rate 12.6% 29th — below avg
- 4th-down aggression 28.4% 17th — bottom tier
- Late & close 6.7 yds/play 88th — strong
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5vsAbilene ChristianW33-10Final
- Wk 2Sep 12
atOregon StatePac-12W35-24Final - Wk 3Sep 19
vsHoustonBig 12W28-26Final - Wk 4Sep 26
vsSam HoustonConference USA99%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atColoradoBig 1290%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsArizona StateBig 1288%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
atCincinnatiBig 1273%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
vsArizonaBig 1280%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
vsWest VirginiaBig 1290%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
atOklahoma StateBig 1271%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atBaylorBig 1276%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 27
vsTCUBig 1277%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.