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Texas Tech

Red Raiders · Big 12

Head coach Joey McGuire Year 5 with Texas Tech

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
10.7
Expected wins
11-1
Proj record
9 to 12
Win range (90%)
#4 (1–9)
Final rank (90%)
98%
Make playoff
72%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Interactive playoff-probability scenarios — coming when the 2026 schedule loads.

Once CFBD publishes the 2026 schedule and we run conditional sims against it, this section becomes interactive: tap a Win or Loss on each of Texas Tech's 5 pivotal games and watch the playoff probability shift. Schedule typically lands mid-July; first sims a few days after.

Until then, the model is still computing Texas Tech's preliminary 2026 rating — see the Way Too Early Top 25 on the homepage for the headline number.

Returning production · 2026

51 score
  • Quarterback 26% (3/5 )
  • Offensive line 80% (16/20 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 72% (15/28 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 37% (11/30 )
  • Secondary 68% (14/23 )
  • Special teams 18% (3/5 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+2.5 rating

19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

  • Trey White LB ← San Diego State 216 impact
  • Adam Trick LB ← Miami (OH) 206 impact
  • Jamond Mathis LB ← Kent State 168 impact
  • Julien Laventure DL ← Akron 161 impact
  • Jett Carpenter TE ← Nevada 147 impact
  • Kenny Johnson WR ← Pittsburgh 121 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

If QB1 is out (Behren Morton)

GIE projects a -2.5 rating drop and a -9.9pp shift in playoff probability if Texas Tech loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 44.0% 89th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 12.6% 29th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 28.4% 17th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 6.7 yds/play 88th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.