2026 Week 4
Sam Houston at Texas Tech
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Jones AT&T Stadium
Sam Houston
Conference USA
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -16.3
- National rank
- 121
- Proj. wins
- 5.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Texas Tech
Big 12
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 18.5
- National rank
- 13
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 28%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Sam Houston
1%
Texas Tech
99%
Texas Tech 90% CI: 99% – 99% Δ rating 34.8
Texas Tech is the model's favorite at 99%. Sam Houston has a 1% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.9 rating points baked in for Texas Tech — venue-specific learned value (n=53 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Sam Houston offense
26 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Texas Tech offense
45 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
87°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
10 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Jones AT&T Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No